«Spoonfeeding Democracy Does Not Work»

The challenge faced by U.S. policy in Iraq is an indication of Kishore Mahbubani's assertion that you cannot export democracy into countries that are not ready for it.

In his book "The New Asian Hemisphere" Mahbubani points to the limitations of Western leadership in such areas as free trade, global warming, nuclear non-proliferation, Middle East policy, and reticence to accept the rise of Asia.

The author discusses the gap between America embracing democracy and the rule of law for all nations while itself arguably playing bully in dealing with so called "enemy combatants." Because of these shortcomings, Mahbubani believes it is far better for third world populations to be modernized rather than Westernized.

While sometimes harsh on Western leaders the author is quick to give credit where credit is due by recognizing Western contributions such as science and technology, free-market economics, pragmatism, rule of law, education, culture of peace, and meritocracy. But that does not stop the author from pushing for changes in the institutions that govern the international and economic system to make room for Asia's return to global leadership, such as his call to add India and Japan to the UN Security Council.

In his book, the author calls for more partnering among East and West to help build a more stable world with more stable growth. I'll drink to that, since this is what I do for a living.

By Gunjan Bagla
Author of Doing Business in 21st Century India

[Wednesday, September 10, 2008]

«East, West neither the best»

Kishore Mahbubani is the Professor of Public Policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. His previous books carry the interesting titles of Can Asian Think? and Beyond the Age of Innocence.

In this book, Kishore, a former diplomat explores the reaction of the West especially the United States towards the shift of global power to the east. By 2050, the world's three largest economies will be in Asia: Japan, India, and China.

Kishore's thesis is that the east like to replicate, not dominate. This was always so with Asian and Western countries. However much depends on the response of the United States. If the United States are willing to share and not dominate, then there will be much benefit to everyone. However if the United States decide to try to dominate the rising economies, there will be much chaos.

History unfortunately has shown that the Western response when threatened by the east was always a retreat into protectionism and attacks. The Japan-bashing of the 1980s, have been replaced by India-bashing of the 1990s (due to outsourcing) and now we have China-bashing in the 2000s. Looks like we in Asia are in a stormy ride.

[Wednesday, August 13, 2008]

«Helpful, with Refreshing Objectivity!»

By 2050, three of the world's largest economies will be Asian - China, Japan, and India, and America's domination of global institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, G-7, and the U.N. Security Council will be over.

The U.S. needs to take a broader view of morality than it has. The rise of Asia has brought more "goodness" (lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty) into the world in the last several decades; at current growth rates standards of living in China may rise 100X within a human life span, contrasted with Russia's 45% decline after following American advice to leap into democracy without reforming the economy first. Facilitating widespread acquisition of consumer goods removes the feeling of hopelessness and futility, increases sense of self-worth, lowers crime rates, encourages the teaching of history to become less ideological (eg. China's new texts mention Mao only once), and improves education standards. However, accomplishing this requires not freedom from authoritarianism (as most Americans think), but freedom from chaos and anarchy. (Part of the government's reaction to Tiananmen Square was supposedly due to their support for a Russian-style economic and political conversion.)

Mao's initial implementation of central planning was not a failure - thanks to his ending almost a century of political turmoil the first Five-Year Plan brought average annual increases in industrial and agricultural output of 19.6 and 4.8% respectively. The 1955 Great Leap Forward, on the other hand, was a failure.

The success of Chinese expatriates overseas and their low productivity on the mainland confirmed (along with initial small experiments that partially reversed collectivization of agriculture) Deng's suspicion that China had adopted the wrong economic system. Thus, he became a pragmatist ("It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white - as long as it catches mice it is a good cat."), calling for an end to name-calling, emphasizing responsibility, and stating that "To get rich is glorious." Regardless, China's development has now reached a need for a legal system that borrows from Western concepts, thereby decentralizing financial power and property rights (and further encouraging economic investment).

Asia had slipped behind Western scientific development because of a religious mindset that spurned the material world and a lack of critical questioning. Richard Smalley, Nobel Laureate in chemistry, predicted that by 2010, 905 of PhD scientists and engineers would be living in Asia. China's 200,000 returnees make up 81% of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, enticed by patriotism and growing opportunities, resistance to research in some areas (eg. stem-cell), and increased government funding. (China has increased from 0.6% in 1995 to 1.3% in 2005, vs. U.S. federal outlays declining over the past 30 years to 0.05% in 2003.

The China Central Committee's (CCC) average age in 2002 was 55; membership is based on merit, not seniority (eg. Russia's Politburo). Another lesson learned from Russia's implosion was to avoid an early overfocus on military development.

Arab Muslims make up on about 1/6 of the world's 1.5 billion Muslims. Most live in Asia; throughout the world Islamist parties are gaining ground.

Hopefully, the Western nations will accept Asia's rise. America's star is not dimming, though it is shining relatively less brightly. In addition, our supporting Israel, Arab and other despots, speaking non-proliferation while silent on Israeli nukes, modernizing American weapons, and supporting India's nuclearization, supporting democracy, while punishing Palestinians for not voting the way we want, lack of leadership on global warming (includes insisting on too much, too soon from developing nations), name-calling and refusing to talk to Iran do not compare well with China's no-strings aid to eg. Africa, without dictating terms for economic and political reforms.

An excellent outside perspective!

[Tuesday, July 22, 2008]

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